The U.S. Job Market on AI, by AI

Generated Apr 1, 2026, 6:49 PM UTC

An ensemble of frontier models scores every occupation for AI exposure. Read the colors as model judgment, not forecast. Inspired by @karpathy's experiment.

Mean pay

$0 to $150K+ · mean $68.5K

Projected growth

<-10% to >15% · mean +3%

Replacement exposure

0 to 10 · mean 4.1/10

Occupations

832 / 832

Jobs

170M / 170M

Score

4.1/10 all 4.1

Wage bill

$11.6T / $11.6T

More insulated

More exposed

Loading treemap...

Replacement exposure by education

No degree105.1M · 4.1/10

Postsecondary certificate10.5M · 2.8/10

Associate degree3.5M · 3.9/10

Bachelor's degree42.5M · 4.6/10

Master's degree3.8M · 3.3/10

Doctoral or professional degree4.5M · 3.9/10

Replacement exposure bands

Minimal (0-2)28.6M · 16.8%

Low (2-4)59.8M · 35.2%

Moderate (4-6)46.4M · 27.3%

High (6-8)29.1M · 17.1%

Very high (8-10)6.1M · 3.6%