The U.S. Job Market on AI, by AI

Generated Aug 4, 2026, 3:27 PM UTC

An ensemble of frontier models scores every occupation for AI exposure. Read the colors as model judgment, not forecast. Inspired by @karpathy's experiment.

Mean pay

$0 to $150K+ · mean $68.5K

Projected growth

<-10% to >15% · mean +3%

Replacement exposure

0 to 10 · mean 4.1/10

Occupations

832 / 832

Jobs

170M / 170M

Score

4.1/10 all 4.1

Wage bill

$11.6T / $11.6T

Browse view

Color metric

More insulated
More exposed
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Replacement exposure extremes

Among filtered occupations with 100K+ jobs

More exposed

More insulated

Replacement exposure by major group

Jobs-weighted average · click a group to focus it

Replacement exposure by education

No degree105.1M · 3.9/10
Postsecondary certificate10.5M · 2.8/10
Associate degree3.5M · 4.0/10
Bachelor's degree42.5M · 4.7/10
Master's degree3.8M · 3.5/10
Doctoral or professional degree4.5M · 4.0/10

Replacement exposure bands

Minimal (0-2)25M · 14.7%
Low (2-4)67.7M · 39.9%
Moderate (4-6)43.9M · 25.8%
High (6-8)27.1M · 16.0%
Very high (8-10)6.2M · 3.6%